AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 8 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
82%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Only two tracked wallets are active, both on the NO side at 95c, signaling smart money sees Merz surviving through September 2026 as highly likely. Their entries near the ceiling imply they are harvesting a small carry rather than expressing a directional edge, and they would exit quickly on any deterioration. This positioning reinforces the 7c YES price as a tail-risk premium, not a live probability.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $24.6K | 0% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $2.7K | 0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,441 on $27.3K capital deployed (avg +5.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $392.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |