As of September 17, 2026, Polymarket prices “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026” at 6% YES with $51K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before september 30, 2026.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 6c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 6c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 96c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 94c. 3-point gap supports YES.
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on the NO side, entering at 95c, which signals strong conviction that Merz remains Chancellor through the deadline. Their one-sided NO exposure reinforces the dominant bearish-YES sentiment and offers no evidence of smart-money accumulation on the YES side. With zero YES entries tracked, there is no countervailing flow to challenge the 6c pricing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $2.8K | 0% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $2.4K | 0% |
With YES at 6c and NO entries at 95c, NO holders are currently underwater as the market prices only a 6% chance of Merz exiting before September 30, 2026. No tracked wallet is in profit on either side, meaning the 95c NO buyers are sitting on a 1c loss per share while YES has no profitable positions. This lack of profit-taking pressure on NO suggests holders are likely to defend the 95c level rather than capitulate, keeping YES capped near 6c.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $51K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $51K |
| Our Model | 9c | — |