AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 8 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 12c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
78%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 94c, signaling strong conviction that Gemini 4.0 will not launch by September 30, 2026. This one-sided smart-money stance reinforces the dominant NO side and implies the market-implied 7% probability may still be too high if this wallet's view is informed.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.1K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$72 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg +6.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $644.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |