AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 42c |
16%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 22c |
68%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 38c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 20c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 56c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $2.7K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,711 on $2.7K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 39c | $316.8K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 20c | — | × missed |