AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c |
30%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 2c |
98%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 18c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 35c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 88c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $1.1K | -6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$142 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg +13.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 82c | $71.4K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 35c | — | × missed |