AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 7c |
86%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 18c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unanimously short the arrest narrative, with the single tracked wallet anchored at 65c NO and riding the fade to 14c. The absence of any YES entries signals zero conviction among tracked alpha that Thunberg gets arrested by June 30, reinforcing structural downside drift toward resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x22db..0f | Retail | NO | $1.7K | +42% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$899 on $1.7K capital deployed (avg +54.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $71.9K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | ✓ matched |