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Resolves: Jun 2026 31 days left Volume: $70K

Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?

NO
88c
YES
12c

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Down from 68% to 12% since 2026-04-14 (-56pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $70K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($70K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 12c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 6/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.
MODERATE OUR VERDICT
BUY NO 89c

6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 12c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

+7% TARGET YIELD
53c
95c
100c
89c
87c
Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 of 6 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelNO94c—
MATH Compound SignalNO72c—
AI Claude AnalysisNO94c
82%
AI DeepSeek QuantNO92c
75%
AI Gemini FlashNO82c
65%
AI Kimi MacroNO88c
85%

6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value below market (72–94c vs 88c). Kimi Macro leads with 85% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 88c. 1-point gap supports YES.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money entered NO at 65c, a premium fade against the arrest thesis that has fully played out as price collapsed to 12c. The lone tracked positioning aligns with the dominant NO side and implies continued conviction that Thunberg will not be arrested by June 30.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x22db..0fRetailNO$1.6K+35%
See all 80 alpha wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

The single tracked wallet sits 100% in profit on NO at a 65c average entry, with current price at 12c delivering ~53c of unrealized gain. Zero YES profitability and the deep NO markup signal little appetite to defend higher YES prices — any bounce likely meets supply from the profitable NO holder.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% in profit

Polymarket: 12c YES — $70K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $70K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket12c$70K
Our Model13c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 12% YES with $70K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 13c YES. 6 models agree on direction.