As of September 19, 2026, Polymarket prices “Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?” at 8% YES with $137K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 8% probability to: houthis enter aden by september 30, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo8/8 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 8c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 8c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 95c | 85% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 88c | 68% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 82% |
8 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–96c vs 92c). Claude Analysis leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 92c. 1-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 90c, signaling conviction that Houthi forces will not enter Aden by September 30, 2026. This one-sided smart-money posture reinforces the bearish YES case and suggests no credible accumulation of YES exposure at current levels.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $2.8K | +2% |
With YES at 8c, all YES positions are underwater while every NO entry is profitable, reflecting a market that has repriced sharply toward the status quo. The 90c NO entries anchor the downside, implying sellers see little chance of a Houthi takeover of Aden by the deadline and are willing to accept thin returns for high-probability resolution.
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $137K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $137K |
| Our Model | 9c | — |