AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
95%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unanimously positioned NO with disciplined high-conviction entries at 85-89c, signaling they always viewed April 30 as an unrealistic deadline for Iran to concede enrichment. The absence of any profitable YES wallet and the tight NO entry cluster indicate institutional consensus that diplomacy will not produce a binding agreement in this window. Direction stays anchored toward resolution NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 | Retail | NO | $6.3K | +10% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $2.6K | -78% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,561 on $8.9K capital deployed (avg -17.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |