Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 24% YES on Polymarket with $802K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

76c

YES

24c

Prediction markets give a 24% probability to: iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by april 30?.

Currently at 24%

Traded on Polymarket — $802K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 24c YES with $802K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 3 tracked wallets positioned NO with 0.7x conviction. Backed by $802K in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 76c

Smart money entered NO at 86c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $10K in liquidity, primarily on YES. NO wallets entered between 86c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5cd5..33	MM	NO	$6.2K	-11%
This Market Entered at 86c → now 76c (-11%), $6.2K on NO Track Record 30d on platform · 1830 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1830) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc1b3..1c	MM	YES	$2.5K	+100%
This Market Entered at 12c → now 24c (+100%), $2.5K on YES Track Record 3mo on platform · 1170 trades · politics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1170) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$1.7K	+32%
This Market Entered at 18c → now 24c (+32%), $1.7K on YES Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 12c–18c, NO wallets at 86c. At current price 24c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 24c YES — $802K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 24c with $802K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 24c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	24c	$802K
Our Model	24c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 24% YES with $802K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30??

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.