Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jun 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $1.6M

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Q: How did 'Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jun 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	3c	94%
Compound Signal	NO	26c	48%
Claude Analysis	NO	3c	95%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	6c	85%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	6c	94%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money is unanimously short: both tracked wallets sit on the NO side at 86c and zero have backed YES at current levels. The 14c YES entries look like early speculative bets that were faded by conviction NO positioning, signaling tracked flow expects no enrichment deal before May 31.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xd48a..90	MM	NO	$19.3K	+8%
This Market Entered at 86c → now 50c (+8%), $19.3K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 08 → May 10 DatePositionAmountTotal May 08BUYNO84+$10,000$10,000 May 10BUYNO89+$7,777$18,352 Realized— Unrealized+$1,565 Total Profit+$1,565 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (126) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$6.6K	-68%
This Market Entered at 14c → now 50c (-68%), $6.6K on YES Activity · 11 events · May 06 → May 27 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES22+$2,308$2,308 May 07BUYYES16+$1,177$2,847 May 08BUYYES17+$5,293$8,383 May 09BUYYES17+$248$8,424 May 10BUYYES8+$273$4,238 May 18BUYYES4+$24$2,122 May 20BUYYES9+$102$5,149 May 22BUYYES11+$645$6,915 May 23BUYYES13+$55$7,856 May 24BUYYES10+$4,024$9,876 May 27BUYYES11+$369$11,720 Realized— Unrealized−$7,961 Total Profit−$7,961 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1886) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

75% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,464 on $25.9K capital deployed (avg -13.4%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

75% in profit

YES positions

25% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$1.6M	0c
AI Consensus	10c	—	✓ matched

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