Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Report: Iran's Truce Offer Consists of Three Stages, Freeze on Uranium Enrichment for Up to 15 Years.

What’s Happening

Recent diplomatic overtures have placed the question of whether Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026 at the center of negotiations. On May 3, 2026, a report from Al Jazeera detailed a three-stage truce offer from Tehran, which includes a 15-year freeze on uranium enrichment in its second and third phases. Under this framework, Iran would eventually be permitted to enrich only to 3.6 percent purity, with a strict "zero stockpile accumulation" principle, effectively requiring the removal of its existing material. This proposal comes as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates Iran holds approximately 11 tons of enriched uranium, including 440 pounds at 60 percent purity, much of it buried at the Isfahan complex after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and 2026. [Haaretz, May 03]

The feasibility of a deal hinges on verification and security challenges. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated on April 29, 2026 that the agency believes the majority of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains at the bombed Isfahan site, which inspectors have not been able to access since the war began. Grossi noted that discussions with Russia and other parties have explored the possibility of physically shipping the stockpile out of Iran—a complex operation requiring either a political agreement or a major U.S. military intervention in hostile territory. The Trump administration has argued that U.S. satellites are monitoring the deeply buried cache and that it poses little immediate threat, but hawks in Washington insist that any deal must include the complete removal of the stockpile, not just a freeze. [Greenwich Time, Apr 29]

The structural factor that will determine whether Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026 is the balance between Tehran’s leverage and its vulnerability. Iran’s nuclear progress since the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 deal in 2018 has given it a significant bargaining chip, but the destruction of its enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow has crippled its ability to produce new material quickly. Grossi described current U.S.-Iran talks as "very different" from those of 2015 due to Iran’s advanced nuclear capabilities, while analysts caution that any agreement to surrender the stockpile would require unprecedented international monitoring and security guarantees. The May 31, 2026 deadline aligns with the expiration of interim ceasefire terms, making it a critical inflection point for diplomatic resolution or renewed military escalation. [Times of Israel, Apr 30]

Traded on Polymarket — $82K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($82K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 10c YES.