Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jun 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $5.0M

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Q: How did 'Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jun 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	14c	72%
Compound Signal	NO	26c	48%
Claude Analysis	NO	3c	95%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	72%
Gemini Flash	NO	20c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	7c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money took small YES positions at 11-12c betting on a diplomatic surprise, but the 40-45% drawdown without any NO tracking suggests this was speculative convexity, not conviction. The dominant NO flow without tracked alpha participation indicates the market consensus (Iran won't surrender uranium by May 31) is driven by retail/structural sellers rather than informed positioning.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$4.6K	-29%
This Market Entered at 12c → now 50c (-29%), $4.6K on YES Activity · 10 events · May 06 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES14+$398$398 May 07BUYYES15+$2,995$3,431 May 09BUYYES11+$2,243$4,717 May 10BUYYES12+$295$5,398 May 16BUYYES5+$556$2,824 May 18BUYYES7+$210$4,163 May 20BUYYES8+$17$4,597 May 22BUYYES11+$4$6,810 May 23BUYYES10+$7$5,891 May 25BUYYES16+$827$10,342 Realized— Unrealized−$2,969 Total Profit−$2,969 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1886) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$2.3K	-40%
This Market Entered at 11c → now 50c (-40%), $2.3K on YES Activity · 4 events · May 22 → May 27 DatePositionAmountTotal May 22BUYYES10+$897$897 May 23BUYYES10+$220$1,045 May 25BUYYES13+$1,459$2,845 May 27BUYYES10+$1,083$3,398 Realized— Unrealized−$1,360 Total Profit−$1,360 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1530) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$6,882 on $6.9K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	7c	$5.0M	0c
AI Consensus	13c	—	✓ matched

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