Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 16% YES on Polymarket with $58K in total trading volume.

84c

YES

16c

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). Iran’s latest proposal is to cease attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz if the US agrees to end the war and lift the naval blockade.

Currently at 16%

Traded on Polymarket — $58K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($58K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 16c YES.

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Last updated: May 01, 2026, 22:06 UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 16% YES with $58K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.