AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 29c |
42%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 12c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 19c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Single tier-1 wallet on YES at 15c is a low-conviction convexity nibble rather than a directional thesis — too small a sample to call alpha. The decisive signal is the dominant NO side: smart money treats unrestricted Hormuz transit as structurally implausible in the remaining window, consistent with broader Iran de-escalation skepticism.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $2.4K | -8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,382 on $2.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $1.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 19c | — | ✓ matched |