AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 16c |
68%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 5c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 92c, signaling early conviction that Iran would not agree to unrestricted Hormuz transit within April's window. Smart money positioning aligns with the structural Iran-NO thesis: diplomatic breakthroughs on this timeline are improbable, and the wallet's willingness to pay 92c reflects high confidence in the status-quo outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd48a..90 ★ | MM | NO | $2.5K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$212 on $2.5K capital deployed (avg +8.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 9c | $438.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |