How did 'Iran closes its airspace by May 24?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 27, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 27, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $15.4M

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Resolved · MAY 27

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	10c	80%
PIN Model	NO	4c	92%
Compound Signal	NO	21c	58%
Claude Analysis	NO	11c	78%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	12c	78%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money loaded NO above 65c and has held into the decay to 18c, signaling conviction that Iran does not formally close airspace by May 24. The absence of any tracked YES entries — even at headline-friendly prices — reinforces that informed flow reads the May 24 deadline as too tight for a formal closure event.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$3.7K	+6%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (+6%), $3.7K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYNO78+$3,511$3,511 Realized— Unrealized+$217 Total Profit+$217 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1964) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xfcf2..69	Retail	NO	$3.0K	+26%
This Market Entered at 66c → now 50c (+26%), $3.0K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 18 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYNO66+$2,375$2,375 Realized— Unrealized+$615 Total Profit+$615 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1974 trades).
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$2.1K	+24%
This Market Entered at 65c → now 50c (+24%), $2.1K on NO Activity · 5 events · May 17 → May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal May 17BUYNO69+$207$207 May 18BUYNO66+$768$964 May 19BUYNO63+$630$1,556 May 20BUYNO78+$37$1,964 May 20SELLNO84−$180$1,936 Realized+$40 Unrealized+$436 Total Profit+$476 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1394) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	NO	$1.0K	+9%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 75c → now 50c (+9%), $1.0K on NO Activity · 3 events · May 19 → May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal May 19BUYNO73+$730$730 May 20BUYNO77+$770$1,540 May 20SELLNO82−$632$1,004 Realized+$53 Unrealized+$92 Total Profit+$145 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1298) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,089 on $9.8K capital deployed (avg +41.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	18c	$15.4M	0c
AI Consensus	14c	—	✓ matched

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