How did 'Iran closes its airspace by May 27?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 31, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 31, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $4.0M

Iran closes its airspace by May 27?

Resolved · MAY 31

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	35c	30%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	85%
Gemini Flash	NO	20c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	24c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 18c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $32K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 7c–65c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$19.6K	+1078%
This Market Entered at 7c → now 50c (+1078%), $19.6K on NO Activity · 3 events · May 20 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYNO77+$11$11 May 22BUYNO9+$1,640$1,642 May 23BUYNO3+$245$775 Realized— Unrealized+$17,708 Total Profit+$17,708 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1970) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$8.2K	+12%
This Market Entered at 65c → now 50c (+12%), $8.2K on NO Activity · 5 events · May 19 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 19BUYNO59+$3,844$3,844 May 20BUYNO71+$1,817$6,440 May 21BUYNO78+$839$7,918 May 22BUYNO79+$727$8,757 May 23SELLNO2−$4$196 Realized−$125 Unrealized+$1,144 Total Profit+$1,019 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1306) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	NO	$4.1K	+35%
This Market Entered at 56c → now 50c (+35%), $4.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 23BUYNO56+$3,009$3,009 Realized— Unrealized+$1,054 Total Profit+$1,054 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1536) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$256,191 on $31.9K capital deployed (avg +802.9%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	24c	$4.0M	0c
AI Consensus	18c	—	✓ matched

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