AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 16c |
68%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
78%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unanimously positioned NO, with all 4 tracked wallets having sold YES into the 67-92c range when coup probability was elevated. The absence of YES accumulation even at 8c — typically a level where convexity hunters would step in — signals strong conviction that residual tail risk does not justify the premium, pointing to continued decay toward resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $9.1K | +5% | |
| 0x12d6..a8 | MM | NO | $1.6K | +37% | |
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | MM | NO | $1.6K | +3% | |
| 0xa8af..5e | MM | NO | $1.3K | -2% | |
| 0x7c15..db | MM | NO | $1.2K | -1% | |
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $1.0K | +6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,244 on $15.9K capital deployed (avg +14.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $2.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 7c | — | ✓ matched |