Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran coup attempt by June 30?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 6% YES on Polymarket with $1.3M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran coup attempt by June 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Iran coup attempt by June 30?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 7c YES. 7 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

94c

YES

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Iran coup attempt by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Down from 12% to 6% since 2026-04-14 (-6pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $1.3M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.3M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 6c YES.

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On this market: 7/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 7c vs market 6c. 2 tier-1 wallets aligned with models — BUY NO at 6c.

— TARGET YIELD

7 of 7 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	NO	96c	—
MATH PIN Model	NO	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	85c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	96c	88%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	96c	82%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	90c	70%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	93c	90%

7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (85–98c vs 94c). Kimi Macro leads with 90% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 93c — market prices it at 94c. 1-point gap supports YES.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is uniformly positioned against a coup, with the 67c floor entry signaling conviction even when the market priced meaningful tail risk. The absence of YES entries combined with NO holders averaging well above current price points to a structural fade — wallets are treating any YES rally as an exit liquidity event, not a thesis shift.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$8.1K	+5%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 89c → now 94c (+5%), $8.1K on NO Activity · 8 events · May 01 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 01BUYNO88+$5,258$5,258 May 12BUYNO89+$37$5,377 May 15BUYNO90+$481$5,918 May 18BUYNO92+$16$6,066 May 20BUYNO88+$6$5,808 May 23BUYNO92+$102$6,174 May 25BUYNO92+$1,748$7,922 May 29BUYNO94+$41$8,135 Realized— Unrealized+$403 Total Profit+$403 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1828 trades).
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$1.6K	+35%
This Market Entered at 67c → now 94c (+35%), $1.6K on NO Activity · 3 events · Jan 09 → Mar 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 09BUYNO68+$115$115 Mar 07BUYNO67+$835$948 Mar 19BUYNO68+$321$1,283 Realized— Unrealized+$450 Total Profit+$450 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1240) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	NO	$1.6K	+2%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 92c → now 94c (+2%), $1.6K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 12 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 12BUYNO90+$810$810 May 29BUYNO94+$747$1,593 Realized— Unrealized+$28 Total Profit+$28 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1232) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$1.0K	+5%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 94c (+5%), $1.0K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 18 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYNO89+$966$966 Realized— Unrealized+$50 Total Profit+$50 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1618) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

All 4 tracked wallets sit on the NO side with entries between 67c and 92c, and 100% of them are in profit at the current 6c print. Zero YES exposure means no one is defending the long side, so any drift back toward double-digits would hand NO holders fresh markup with no organic bid underneath.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 6c YES — $1.3M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $1.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 7c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	6c	$1.3M
Our Model	7c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran coup attempt by June 30?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $1.3M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran coup attempt by June 30?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran coup attempt by June 30?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Iran coup attempt by June 30?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 7c YES. 7 models agree on direction.