AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 29c |
42%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 23c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 13c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 13c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 21c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money shows no conviction on the YES side: a single wallet took an early 18c YES stake that has since faded, and there are no tracked NO entries to counterbalance. With the dominant side firmly NO and the sole directional bet losing, the signal points to airspace closure by July 15 being unlikely.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xdd22..f1 | MM | YES | $1.1K | -51% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,062 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11c | $2.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 21c | — | ✓ matched |