AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
42%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 8c |
88%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 86c, positioning against an Iran airspace closure by September 30. That entry signals conviction that closure is unlikely, consistent with the dominant NO side and 100% NO profitability. With no tracked YES entries, smart-money flow offers no counterweight to the bearish consensus.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $6.4K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,057 on $6.4K capital deployed (avg +16.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |