As of September 20, 2026, Polymarket prices “Iran full airspace closure by September 30?” at 8% YES with $864K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 8% probability to: iran full airspace closure by september 30?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 12c vs market 6c. BUY NO at 6c — models see 6c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 82% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 94c. 6-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 86c, signaling confidence against a full Iranian airspace closure. With no YES entries from this wallet, its positioning aligns with the dominant NO side and implies smart money sees the event as unlikely. This concentrated NO entry at a high price indicates the wallet expects the status quo to hold through the deadline.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $6.3K | +8% |
With YES at 6c, all NO positions entered at 86c are profitable, while every YES holder is underwater. The extreme skew toward NO profitability reinforces downward pressure on the YES price, as there is no profitable YES cohort to provide bid support. This dynamic suggests the market strongly favors no full airspace closure by September 30.
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $864K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $864K |
| Our Model | 12c | — |