AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 7c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
93%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is overwhelmingly positioned on NO, with 5 tracked wallets entering across a wide 53c-96c range signaling persistent conviction that leadership change won't occur by April 30. The absence of YES entries among tracked wallets reinforces that informed capital sees the 7c YES price as fairly valued or still overpriced relative to actual probability.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x69aa..47 ★ | MM | NO | $18.6K | 0% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 | Retail | NO | $9.4K | +10% | |
| 0x12d6..a8 | MM | NO | $9.2K | +38% | |
| 0x4e25..a7 | MM | NO | $3.8K | -2% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $2.6K | +0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$11,239 on $43.6K capital deployed (avg +25.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $5.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |