Iran leadership change by April 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran leadership change by April 30?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 8% YES on Polymarket with $3.0M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran leadership change by April 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

92c

YES

Prediction markets give a 8% probability to: iran leadership change by april 30?.

Currently at 8%

Traded on Polymarket — $3.0M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $3.0M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 8c YES.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 4 tracked wallets positioned NO with 0.2x conviction. Backed by $3.0M in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 93c

Smart money entered NO at 52c–91c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $26K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 52c–91c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$9.2K	+78%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 92c (+78%), $9.2K on NO Track Record 1mo on platform · 1330 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1330) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33	MM	NO	$6.6K	+18%
This Market Entered at 79c → now 92c (+18%), $6.6K on NO Track Record 30d on platform · 1830 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1830) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$6.6K	-63%
This Market Entered at 20c → now 8c (-63%), $6.6K on YES Track Record 3mo on platform · 1694 trades · other specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1694) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x69aa..47 ★	MM	NO	$4.1K	+2%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 91c → now 92c (+2%), $4.1K on NO Track Record 11mo on platform · 1218 trades · crypto specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1218) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 20c, NO wallets at 52c–91c. At current price 8c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 8c YES — $3.0M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $3.0M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 8c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	8c	$3.0M
Our Model	8c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by April 30??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 8% YES with $3.0M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran leadership change by April 30??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran leadership change by April 30??

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.