As of September 13, 2026, Polymarket prices “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?” at 12% YES with $85K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 12% probability to: iran-oman hormuz agreement by september 21?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 12c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 89c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–98c vs 88c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 88c. 1-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 59c and is now deep in profit, signaling conviction that no Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement materializes by September 21. With no YES entries recorded, smart money is unambiguously positioned against the agreement, reinforcing the bearish YES outlook. This one-sided flow suggests informed capital sees the diplomatic outcome as unlikely within the timeframe.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $5.1K | +50% |
With YES at 12c, every YES holder is underwater while all NO positions are profitable, creating strong incentive for NO holders to defend the 88c mark. The absence of profitable YES entries means there is no natural bid support from winners, leaving the 12c level vulnerable to further decay. This asymmetry typically pressures YES lower as NO holders have little reason to exit a winning trade.
Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $85K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $85K |
| Our Model | 13c | — |