AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 22c |
61%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 59c, now deep in profit and signaling confidence that no Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement materializes by September 21. With no YES entries from this wallet, smart money is one-sidedly bearish on the agreement outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | Retail | NO | $5.5K | +62% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,920 on $5.5K capital deployed (avg +70.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $142.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |