AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 9c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 28c |
41%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
80%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
78%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 15c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 47c, with no YES entries, signaling conviction that an Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement will not materialize by September 30. That concentrated NO positioning reinforces the dominant bearish side and suggests informed money sees the YES contract as overpriced even at 10c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x551e..e0 | MM | NO | $13.2K | +56% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$14,700 on $13.2K capital deployed (avg +111.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $829.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 15c | — | ✓ matched |