As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?” at 16% YES with $325K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). Iran, Oman Working on Strait of Hormuz Agreement.
Negotiations between Tehran and Muscat over the strategic waterway remain fluid, with the latest joint statement on Tuesday, August 26, 2026 describing an “interim framework” for resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Omani counterpart Badr Albusaidi discussed technical details for a permanent maritime corridor, future administration of the strait, and a revenue-sharing mechanism, according to the Oman News Agency. However, a senior Iranian source clarified on Wednesday, August 27 that the iran-oman hormuz agreement by september 30 is not finalized, stating that talks are continuing on the accord's specifics after the Revolutionary Guards prematurely announced a shared revenue deal [Marine News Magazine, Aug 26].
The diplomatic push follows an earlier report from August 5, 2026 indicating that the US, Iran, and Oman were nearing a temporary 60-day deal to reopen the strait without tolls, a proposal that would establish a safe center lane for commercial traffic. Washington has reportedly held back on extending significant secondary sanctions under its “economic D-Day” strategy, citing retaliation threats from China, which has complicated the pressure campaign against Tehran. The stakes are high: the strait handles roughly 20% of global oil consumption, and any sustained closure would trigger severe energy price shocks. Analysts caution that while an interim reopening is possible, the core disputes over sovereignty, revenue division, and permanent administration remain unresolved, making a full agreement by the end of September uncertain [CNBC, Aug 26].
The structural obstacle to the iran-oman hormuz agreement by september 30 lies in Tehran's insistence that any deal recognize its sovereign rights over the waterway, while Oman seeks a multilateral framework that includes international guarantees for safe passage. Iranian state media has characterized any unilateral US-led arrangement as illegal and a direct threat to Iran's sovereignty, reflecting deep mistrust between the parties. Technical talks are scheduled to continue through early September, but the gap between an interim framework and a binding final accord remains wide. The market's 14% probability of a completed agreement by September 30, 2026 reflects this reality: while momentum exists for a temporary reopening, the permanent administrative and revenue-sharing mechanisms that would constitute a full agreement require compromises neither side has yet demonstrated willingness to make [Insurance Journal, Aug 26].
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Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 17c vs market 20c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 67c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 85c | 68% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 38c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 80c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (67–98c vs 80c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 83c — market prices it at 80c. 3-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet has taken a clear NO stance, entering at 47c, indicating a confident bet against the agreement by September 30. This positioning suggests smart money sees low probability of the event, and the lack of YES entries from this wallet signals no counter-positioning or hedging. The wallet's conviction at a relatively low NO price (47c) implies it expects the market to move further toward NO, aligning with the current 80c NO price.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x551e..e0 | MM | NO | $12.4K | +50% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit, with entries at 47c against a current YES price of 20c (NO at 80c), locking in substantial gains. This profitable NO cohort creates strong support for the NO side, as holders are unlikely to sell at lower prices, reinforcing the bearish outlook on the agreement. The absence of profitable YES positions suggests any YES momentum is weak and lacks a profitable base to drive price appreciation.
Polymarket prices YES at 16c with $325K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 17c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $325K |
| Our Model | 17c | — |