Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 78% YES on Polymarket with $3.7M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

78c

22c

Prediction markets give a 78% probability to: iran x israel/us conflict ends by april 30?.

Currently at 78%

Traded on Polymarket — $3.7M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $3.7M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 78c YES.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 3 tracked wallets positioned NO with 0.6x conviction. Backed by $3.7M in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 22c

Smart money entered NO at 61c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $40K in liquidity, primarily on YES. NO wallets entered between 61c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$24.7K	-63%
This Market Entered at 61c → now 22c (-63%), $24.7K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$7.9K	+160%
This Market Entered at 30c → now 78c (+160%), $7.9K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1570 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$7.4K	+94%
This Market Entered at 40c → now 78c (+94%), $7.4K on YES Track Record 24d on platform · 1246 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1246) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 30c–40c, NO wallets at 61c. At current price 78c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 78c YES — $3.7M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 78c with $3.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 78c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	78c	$3.7M
Our Model	78c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 78% YES with $3.7M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30??

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.