How did 'Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Apr 21, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Apr 21, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $5.8M

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Resolved · APR 21

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 5 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 7 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	74c	48%
Claude Analysis	YES	91c	62%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	86c	70%
Grok Contrarian	NO	15c	70%
Gemini Flash	YES	85c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	86c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 76c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money accumulated YES across a 71-point range, with earliest entries at 17c signaling high-conviction directional bets weeks before consensus. Unanimous one-sided positioning — 6/6 wallets YES, none fading — indicates tracked alpha treats de-escalation by April 30 as a near-settled outcome rather than a contested trade.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$34.2K	+72%
This Market Entered at 54c → now 50c (+72%), $34.2K on YES Track Record 8d on platform · 1938 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1938) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$11.6K	+450%
This Market Entered at 17c → now 50c (+450%), $11.6K on YES Track Record 2mo on platform · 251 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (251) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$10.8K	+85%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 50c (+85%), $10.8K on YES Track Record 20d on platform · 1324 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1324) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	Retail	YES	$7.1K	+115%
This Market Entered at 44c → now 50c (+115%), $7.1K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$6.8K	+171%
This Market Entered at 35c → now 50c (+171%), $6.8K on YES Track Record 24d on platform · 1698 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1698) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$1.9K	+6%
This Market Entered at 88c → now 50c (+6%), $1.9K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1570 trades · economics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$118,112 on $72.3K capital deployed (avg +163.4%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$5.8M	100c
AI Consensus	76c	—	✓ matched

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