How did 'Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Apr 25, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Apr 25, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $5.9M

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Resolved · APR 25

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 7 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	95c	90%
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	73c	46%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	89c	75%
Grok Contrarian	NO	15c	70%
Gemini Flash	YES	92c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	91c	89%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 79c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 6 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 5 market makers are providing $29K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 62c–95c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$13.4K	+39%
This Market Entered at 67c → now 50c (+39%), $13.4K on YES Track Record 9d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90 ★	MM	YES	$5.9K	+7%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 87c → now 50c (+7%), $5.9K on YES Track Record 7d on platform · 310 trades · other specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (310) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	YES	$3.6K	+51%
This Market Entered at 62c → now 50c (+51%), $3.6K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1382 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1382) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$3.0K	+8%
This Market Entered at 86c → now 50c (+8%), $3.0K on YES Track Record 2mo on platform · 250 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (250) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$2.8K	+8%
This Market Entered at 87c → now 50c (+8%), $2.8K on YES Track Record 22d on platform · 1326 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1326) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x22db..0f	Retail	YES	$1.9K	-2%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (-2%), $1.9K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1570 trades · 100% win rate · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1570 trades).

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100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$10,602 on $30.6K capital deployed (avg +34.6%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$5.9M	100c
AI Consensus	79c	—	✓ matched

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