We tracked 5 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 5 market makers are providing $29K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 62c–87c.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xbacd..35
MM
YES
$13.9K
+34%
This Market
Entered at 67c → now 90c (+34%), $13.9K on YES
Track Record
13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90 ★
MM
YES
$6.3K
+3%
★ Tier-1 Wallet
80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets
This Market
Entered at 87c → now 90c (+3%), $6.3K on YES
Track Record
5d on platform · 274 trades · other specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (274) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8
MM
YES
$3.9K
+44%
This Market
Entered at 62c → now 90c (+44%), $3.9K on YES
Track Record
1mo on platform · 1330 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1330) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b
MM
YES
$2.9K
+3%
This Market
Entered at 87c → now 90c (+3%), $2.9K on YES
Track Record
24d on platform · 1246 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1246) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1
MM
NO
$2.3K
-56%
This Market
Entered at 24c → now 10c (-56%), $2.3K on NO
Track Record
1mo on platform · 1570 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
YES wallets entered between 62c–87c, NO wallets at 24c. At current price 90c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 90c YES — $2.7M Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 90c with $2.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 90c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
What are the current odds for Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30??
As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 90% YES with $2.7M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30??
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30??
OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.