We tracked 5 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 5 market makers are providing $50K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 27c–36c.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xbacd..35
MM
NO
$22.3K
-49%
This Market
Entered at 36c → now 19c (-49%), $22.3K on NO
Track Record
13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b
MM
YES
$18.4K
+64%
This Market
Entered at 50c → now 82c (+64%), $18.4K on YES
Track Record
24d on platform · 1246 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1246) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8
MM
NO
$5.3K
-42%
This Market
Entered at 32c → now 19c (-42%), $5.3K on NO
Track Record
1mo on platform · 1330 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1330) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f
MM
NO
$2.2K
-44%
This Market
Entered at 33c → now 19c (-44%), $2.2K on NO
Track Record
21d on platform · 1066 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1066) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1
MM
NO
$1.6K
-32%
This Market
Entered at 27c → now 19c (-32%), $1.6K on NO
Track Record
1mo on platform · 1570 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
YES wallets entered between 50c, NO wallets at 27c–36c. At current price 82c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 82c YES — $3.3M Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 82c with $3.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 82c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
What are the current odds for Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15??
As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 82% YES with $3.3M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15??
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15??
OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.