AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 97c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 72c |
44%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 86c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 84c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 83c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 73c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered YES near the midpoint (50c) before conviction built, capturing the full re-rating as conflict de-escalation priced in. NO entries at 36c signal these wallets bet against resolution early and have been structurally wrong — the 2-wallet split with 100% YES profitability points to continued drift toward resolution by May 15.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $12.9K | +81% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $2.3K | -72% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$10,813 on $15.1K capital deployed (avg +71.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 90c | $13.7M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 73c | — | ✓ matched |