Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
NO
92c
YES
8c
As of October 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?” at 8% YES with $779K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 8% probability to: israel accuses iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31?.
On this market: 5/7 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (73–98c vs 92c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 92c. 4-point gap supports YES.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 22c — Market's 8% YES (and math's 14% blend) underprices tail risks of rapid attribution in a high-tension environment where Israel has repeate...
1 Active Wallets on This Market
The single tracked wallet shows only NO entries at 93c, with no YES activity, signaling conviction that the event will not occur. This one-sided positioning at a high NO price offers little edge but reinforces the bearish YES consensus. With just one wallet tracked, the signal is weak and should be treated as anecdotal rather than smart-money confirmation.
With YES at 8c, NO buyers at 93c are underwater on a mark-to-market basis since NO would need to trade above 93c to profit, and 0% of both sides are in profit. The absence of any profitable positions suggests thin, one-sided liquidity with no meaningful price support for YES. The dominant NO side implies the market is heavily priced against an Israeli accusation materializing by Oct 31.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 8c YES — $779K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $779K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
What are the current odds for Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 8% YES with $779K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 12c YES. 5 models agree on direction.
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