Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Israel closes its airspace by June 15?'?

As of June 2026, prediction markets price this at 56% YES on Polymarket with $3.1M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Israel closes its airspace by June 15?'?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

56c

44c

Prediction markets give a 56% probability to: israel closes its airspace by june 15?.

Currently at 56%

Traded on Polymarket — $3.1M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $3.1M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 56c YES.

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Smart money signal: 4 tracked wallets positioned NO. Backed by $3.1M in trading volume.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 44c

Smart money entered NO at 37c–56c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $34K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 37c–56c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$29.5K	+69%
This Market Entered at 11c → now 56c (+69%), $29.5K on YES Activity · 6 events · May 24 → Jun 08 DatePositionAmountTotal May 24BUYYES18+$136$136 May 29BUYYES11+$144$227 Jun 01BUYYES11+$4,043$4,270 Jun 04BUYYES7+$924$3,641 Jun 07BUYYES35+$213$18,596 Jun 08BUYYES65+$368$34,556 Realized— Unrealized+$23,690 Total Profit+$23,690 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1854) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	NO	$2.9K	+22%
This Market Entered at 37c → now 44c (+22%), $2.9K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jun 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 07BUYNO37+$2,374$2,374 Realized— Unrealized+$518 Total Profit+$518 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1558) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xfcf2..69	Retail	NO	$2.2K	+3%
This Market Entered at 43c → now 44c (+3%), $2.2K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jun 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 08BUYNO43+$2,175$2,175 Realized— Unrealized+$74 Total Profit+$74 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1974 trades).
0x7c3d..6b	MM	NO	$2.0K	-26%
This Market Entered at 56c → now 44c (-26%), $2.0K on NO Activity · 3 events · Jun 07 → Jun 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 07BUYNO60+$2,628$2,628 Jun 07SELLNO38−$295$1,369 Jun 08BUYNO37+$362$1,709 Realized−$171 Unrealized−$522 Total Profit−$693 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1100) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 11c, NO wallets at 37c–56c. At current price 56c, all YES holders are profitable vs 67% of NO holders are profitable. YES side has the profitability advantage.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

67% in profit

Polymarket: 56c YES — $3.1M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 56c with $3.1M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 56c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	56c	$3.1M
Our Model	56c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 56% YES with $3.1M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.