AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 70c |
52%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c |
30%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 38c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 82c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 85c |
72%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 71c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 63c, signaling a confident bet on airspace closure before September 30. This entry, below the current 73c, suggests the wallet anticipated further upside and is now sitting on gains. The absence of NO entries from this wallet implies a one-sided bullish stance, reinforcing upward price momentum unless new information shifts the outlook.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $51.9K | +6% | |
| 0x551e..e0 | MM | YES | $6.4K | +19% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$21,415 on $58.3K capital deployed (avg +36.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 79c | $3.6M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 71c | — | ✓ matched |