AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 11c |
78%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
95%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
One tracked wallet bought YES at 9c, a small contrarian probe rather than a conviction stake. With dominant side NO and the lone YES entry already 33% underwater, smart money signal is effectively absent — the market is pricing permanent peace as a near-zero tail with no informed counter-bet.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 +60% | MM | YES | $2.3K | -41% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,312 on $2.3K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |