Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?'?

As of October 2026, prediction markets price this at 75% YES on Polymarket with $92K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

75c

25c

As of October 10, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?” at 75% YES with $92K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.

Prediction markets give a 75% probability to: israel x iran ceasefire continues through november 15?.

Up from 70% to 75% since 2026-10-09 (+5pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $92K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE AI VERDICT

BUY NO 25c

Smart money entered NO at 23c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 of 1 Wallets Is a Geopolitics Specialist

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is a geopolitics specialist with 100% win rate. All 1 positioned NO — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	Smart	NO	$1.5K	+10%
This Market Entered at 23c → now 25c (+10%), $1.5K on NO Activity · 1 event · Oct 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 10BUYNO23+$1,390$1,390 Realized— Unrealized+$145 Total Profit+$145 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1354 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 23c. At current price 75c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 75c YES — $92K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 75c with $92K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 75c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	75c	$92K
Our Model	75c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 75% YES with $92K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.