As of October 8, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?” at 94% YES with $89K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 94% probability to: israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 15?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on YES, fair value 92c vs market 94c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY YES at 94c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | YES | 97c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | YES | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 94c | 72% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 72c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 94c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 96c | 78% |
7 of 8 models estimate YES fair value below market (75–97c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 92c — market prices it at 94c. 2-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 96c, a high-conviction bet on ceasefire continuation that is now slightly out of the money. With no NO entries from this wallet, its positioning signals continued confidence in the YES outcome despite the small drawdown, though the lack of additional smart-money confirmation leaves the 94c level thinly supported.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | YES | $1.4K | -2% |
With YES trading at 94c and the sole tracked entry at 96c, the position sits 2c underwater and 0% of YES holders are in profit; no NO entries exist to offset. This negative P&L overhang creates mild sell pressure near 94c as the 96c buyer defends or exits, but the absence of profitable NO positions means there is little incentive-driven downside flow to break the market lower.
Polymarket prices YES at 94c with $89K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 92c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $89K |
| Our Model | 92c | — |