As of October 15, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?” at 95% YES with $170K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 95% probability to: israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 18?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on YES, fair value 93c vs market 95c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 95c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 78c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 96c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 97c | 88% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value below market (78–98c vs 95c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 93c — market prices it at 95c. 2-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 92c, signaling conviction that the ceasefire persists through October 18. With no NO entries from this wallet, its positioning is unambiguously bullish and aligns with the market's 95c consensus. This smart-money entry suggests the wallet sees the 92c level as undervalued relative to the true probability of continuation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | YES | $3.2K | +2% |
All tracked YES positions are in profit, with entries at 92c against a current 95c price, yielding a 3c gain per share. The absence of NO entries means no losing side is pressuring the market, and the 100% profitable YES cohort reinforces support at the 92c level. This dynamic favors continued YES strength as holders have little incentive to exit at a loss.
Polymarket prices YES at 95c with $170K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 93c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 95c | $170K |
| Our Model | 93c | — |