As of October 15, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?” at 92% YES with $124K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 92% probability to: israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 21?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 96c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 92c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 68c | 35% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 94c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 94c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (92–96c vs 92c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 94c — market prices it at 92c. 2-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet holds only YES exposure entered at 91c, signaling one-sided conviction that the ceasefire persists through October 21. With no NO entries from this wallet, there is no hedging or contrarian signal to offset the bullish stance. The 91c entry implies the wallet sees the event as near-certain, reinforcing the market's 92c YES price rather than challenging it.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | YES | $3.0K | +1% |
With YES trading at 92c, all YES positions entered at 91c are marginally profitable, while no NO positions exist to show losses. The absence of NO profit-taking removes a source of downward pressure, and the thin 1c spread between entry and current price suggests YES holders are anchored near breakeven, limiting aggressive selling. This setup supports the 92c level as long as no new NO capital enters to challenge the consensus.
Polymarket prices YES at 92c with $124K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 94c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 92c | $124K |
| Our Model | 94c | — |