As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?” at 74% YES with $513K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (72% YES). and Israel will not attack Iran in the future as well.
The trajectory of the **israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31** hinges on a fragile web of interlocking truces that have repeatedly failed to hold since the U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire came into effect on **April 17, 2026**. While that agreement nominally ended large-scale hostilities, the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah, which was not party to the negotiations, quickly rejected the truce, and both Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of violating it almost daily, using those accusations to justify ongoing cross-border attacks. Concurrently, the broader U.S.-Iran conflict has seen Washington order new rounds of strikes to "hold Iranian forces accountable," with CENTCOM confirming additional operations as of **July 13**, while Tehran insists that Israel's continued military presence in Lebanon constitutes a material breach of the June memorandum of understanding signed by President Trump and his Iranian counterpart [CBS News, Jul 13].
The structural fragility of the current arrangement is underscored by the fact that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah never halted fighting, and the conflict has expanded to include direct attacks on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian forces striking vessels as recently as **April 23** as thousands more U.S. troops deployed to the region. Iranian officials have explicitly stated they will not accept a ceasefire or halt disruptions to shipping unless the United States and Israel cease all attacks on Iran—a position that directly contradicts the stated U.S. position on a truce, according to an Institute for the Study of War special report from **April 1**. The humanitarian toll has been severe, with UNICEF reporting that over the past five months, more than **4,000 children** have been killed or injured across six countries, including **2,500 in Iran** as U.S. bombing continues, with **386 killed** and **2,117 injured** [UN News, Jul 31].
Looking ahead to whether the **israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31**, the key variable is the status of ongoing diplomatic negotiations, particularly the second round of ambassador-level talks between Lebanon and Israel that were scheduled at the State Department in late April, which produced only a temporary 10-day ceasefire. A potential U.S.-Iran agreement, reportedly edited by President Trump in early June, includes provisions on enriched uranium and access to the Strait of Hormuz, but Iranian officials have signaled they will not grant the United States access to the strait to secure a ceasefire, even after the war ends. The structural factor that will determine the October 31 resolution is whether the U.S.-brokered framework can compel Hezbollah to halt attacks independent of Tehran's broader strategic calculus, given that the group was excluded from negotiations and has consistently rejected truce terms, while Israel maintains its military presence in Lebanon as leverage [CBS News, Jun 01].
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 18c vs market 74c. BUY NO at 74c — models see 56c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 70c | 55% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 68% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 72% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (72–98c vs 26c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 82c — market prices it at 26c. 56-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet holds NO positions exclusively, entered at 25c, signaling early conviction that the ceasefire will not hold through October 31. This smart money entry at a low price suggests they anticipate a decline in YES probability, and their dominance implies informed positioning against the current 74c market price. Their lack of YES entries reinforces a bearish outlook, though the small sample size limits confidence.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $1.9K | -1% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit, with entries at 25c, while no YES positions are profitable, indicating strong bearish sentiment on the ceasefire. This creates significant selling pressure on YES, as NO holders may take profits, but the 74c YES price suggests market resilience or potential manipulation. Price support for YES is weak given the lack of profitable YES holders to defend it.
Polymarket prices YES at 74c with $513K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 18c. Significant 56-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 74c | $513K |
| Our Model | 18c | — |