Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 5% YES on Polymarket with $192K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

95c

YES

Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: israel x iran permanent peace deal by may 31, 2026?.

Currently at 5%

Traded on Polymarket — $192K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 5c YES with $192K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: May 07, 2026, 12:40 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money positioned NO.

— TARGET YIELD

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$2.7K	+13%
This Market Entered at 4c → now 5c (+13%), $2.7K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal May 07BUYYES4+$2,349$2,349 Realized— Unrealized+$313 Total Profit+$313 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1916) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 4c. At current price 5c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 5c YES — $192K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $192K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 5c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	5c	$192K
Our Model	5c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 5% YES with $192K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.