AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 11c |
78%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 2c |
97%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is overwhelmingly positioned NO at 98c, treating permanent peace by May 31 as a near-zero probability event. The tiny YES entries at 8c look like lottery-ticket convexity rather than conviction; the dominant NO side signals tracked wallets view the 6c market price as still slightly overpriced relative to true tail odds.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $20.2K | -28% | |
| 0x94eb..e6 | MM | NO | $3.5K | -5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$20,142 on $23.7K capital deployed (avg -85.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |