How did 'Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 14, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 14, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $217.2K

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Resolved · MAY 14

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (5 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	67c	34%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	92c	85%
Gemini Flash	YES	92c	80%
Kimi Macro	YES	89c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 88c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$1.2K	+20%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 50c (+20%), $1.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 06 → May 09 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES57+$512$512 May 09BUYYES94+$417$1,262 Realized— Unrealized+$259 Total Profit+$259 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1970) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$528 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg +44.4%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	88c	$217.2K	100c
AI Consensus	88c	—	✓ matched

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