JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'JD Vance out as VP by December 31?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 6% YES on Polymarket with $146K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'JD Vance out as VP by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'JD Vance out as VP by December 31?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 9c YES. 5 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

94c

YES

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: JD Vance out as VP by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). JD Vance’s Chances of Beating AOC and Newsom in New 2028 Poll.

Down from 10% to 6% since 2026-05-31 (-4pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $146K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $146K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 5/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

5/5 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 6c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

— TARGET YIELD

5 of 5 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	NO	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	74c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	95c	92%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	95c	85%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	94c	94%

5 of 5 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 94c). Kimi Macro leads with 94% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 94c. 3-point gap supports YES.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 93c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xcaab..dd	MM	NO	$2.8K	+0%
This Market Entered at 93c → now 94c (+0%), $2.8K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jul 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 11BUYNO93+$2,790$2,790 Realized— Unrealized+$15 Total Profit+$15 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1732) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 93c. At current price 6c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 6c YES — $146K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $146K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	6c	$146K
Our Model	9c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $146K in total volume.

Where can I bet on JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 9c YES. 5 models agree on direction.