Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: JD Vance out as VP by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).
Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $150K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 6c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 96c | 88% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 88c | 65% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 94c | 94% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–97c vs 94c). Kimi Macro leads with 94% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 94c. 3-point gap supports YES.
Smart money is unanimously positioned NO, entering at 93c to bet Vance remains VP through year-end — a classic status-quo incumbency play. The absence of any tracked YES exposure signals no informed appetite for an early VP exit, reinforcing NO as the directionally favored outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $2.8K | +2% |
The single tracked wallet sits entirely on NO at 93c, and with YES trading at just 6c that position is 100% in profit and near full resolution value. No YES entries carry any profitable capital, leaving zero conviction-backed price support beneath the long-shot 6c YES bid.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $150K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $150K |
| Our Model | 9c | — |