AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 34c |
32%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 28c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 24c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 18c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is unanimously positioned NO, with entries clustered 59c-72c signaling early conviction that Powell remains Fed Chair through May 15. The complete absence of tracked YES entries reinforces this as a one-sided thesis — wallets see removal as structurally unlikely within the 3-day window. Directional read: NO continues to firm, YES at 24c lacks any smart-money sponsorship.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $22.6K | +6% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $21.0K | +24% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$43,655 on $43.7K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 24c | $1.2M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 18c | — | × missed |