AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 92c, signaling high conviction Kimmel survives through May 31 — a structural 'status-quo' bet rather than directional alpha. The 92c entry suggests the wallet treated this as near-certain at the time, consistent with a yield-farm or low-risk fade pattern. No tracked wallet sees value in YES at 6c, reinforcing NO as the consensus directional read.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd1ac..d5 | MM | NO | $16.5K | +3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,436 on $16.5K capital deployed (avg +8.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $481.0K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |