Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Donald Trump Says Jimmy Kimmel Better Get Fired ‘Soon’ by ABC After Melania Widow Joke: ‘People Are Angry’.

What’s Happening

The probability that ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel will be fired or resign by May 31 currently stands at 6%, according to market data, reflecting a widespread belief that he will retain his position despite intense political pressure. This comes after President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump publicly demanded his termination over a joke Kimmel made on April 27, 2026, referring to Melania as an “expectant widow” ahead of the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. The comment, made during a monologue about the couple’s age difference, sparked immediate backlash from the White House, with Trump posting on Truth Social that Kimmel “should be immediately fired by Disney and ABC.” However, unlike a similar controversy in September 2025 that nearly cost Kimmel his job, this time ABC station owners and advertisers have not clamored for his removal, according to The Hollywood Reporter. [Variety, Apr 30]

The current low probability of 6% for the “jimmy kimmel fired/resigns by may 31” outcome suggests that market participants view the network’s response as measured and unlikely to result in termination. The Hollywood Reporter noted on April 28 that ABC station owners began calling Disney senior management with the same take—that the uproar this time was less severe than the previous crisis. Kimmel himself has doubled down, repeating the joke on his show and even pointing out that Trump made a similar joke about his own death, which Kimmel argued was more offensive. The New York Post reported on April 28 that a spokesman for Melania Trump reiterated calls for Kimmel’s firing, but no major advertiser pullouts or affiliate revolts have materialized. This institutional support contrasts sharply with the September 2025 incident, where Kimmel barely survived after a joke about the murder of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. [Hollywood Reporter, Apr 28]

Looking ahead, the key question is whether the White House will escalate its campaign against Kimmel or if the controversy will fade as previous ones have. The May 31 deadline is significant because it falls after the traditional May sweeps period, a critical time for television ratings and advertising revenue. Kimmel’s show, while not the highest-rated in late-night, remains a profitable franchise for ABC, and network executives have historically been reluctant to bow to political pressure from any administration. The New York Post reported on April 27 that Trump demanded immediate termination, but as of late April, no formal disciplinary action has been announced by Disney or ABC. The market’s 94% probability that Kimmel remains employed suggests that traders expect the network to weather the storm, betting that the controversy will not reach the critical mass needed to force a change in leadership at “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” [New York Post, Apr 27]

Traded on Polymarket — $432K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $432K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.