AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 20c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Six tracked wallets are exclusively positioned NO at 85-91c entries, signaling unanimous conviction that Netanyahu remains in office through June 30. The absence of any YES accumulation, combined with entry prices well below the current 94c NO mark, indicates smart money treated this as a high-probability status-quo trade rather than a contested binary. Direction signal: strong NO, low convexity remaining.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | MM | NO | $153.8K | +6% | |
| 0x0845..6f | Retail | NO | $7.4K | +9% | |
| 0xa8af..5e | MM | NO | $1.6K | +5% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | MM | NO | $1.1K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$19,817 on $163.9K capital deployed (avg +12.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $6.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |