AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 29c |
42%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 16c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 82c — a high-conviction stance that Patel survives through April 30, now validated by the 88c NO price. Single-wallet sample is thin, but directional alignment with the 12c YES tape suggests no informed buyer is fading the status-quo thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.5K | +16% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$335 on $1.5K capital deployed (avg +22.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $532.3K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 16c | — | ✓ matched |