AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 29c |
42%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 9c |
75%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 14c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 20c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioning is thin and broken — one wallet long YES from 34c, no NO conviction tracked, and dominant side flagged NO by price action rather than wallet flow. The underwater YES entry signals a failed early bet on Patel's ouster; with no fresh smart money stepping in to defend, the path of least resistance points lower toward resolution NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $1.1K | -97% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,064 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $509.8K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 20c | — | ✓ matched |