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Resolves: Jul 2026 33 days left Volume: $10.1M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?'?

As of June 2026, prediction markets price this at 48% YES on Polymarket with $10.1M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 40c YES. 4 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

52c

YES

48c

Prediction markets put the probability at 48%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31. Currently, markets are divided (48% YES, 52% NO).

Up from 44% to 48% since 2026-05-13 (+4pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $10.1M Volume

One of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket with $10.1M traded. Deep liquidity means tight spreads — you can enter and exit large positions without significant slippage. Currently priced at 48c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 4/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 52c

4/5 models agree on NO, fair value 40c vs market 48c. BUY NO at 48c — models see 8c of upside.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 of 5 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	YES	72c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	54c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	72c	70%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	65c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	48c	65%

4 of 5 models estimate NO fair value above market (48–72c vs 52c). Claude Analysis leads with 70% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 60c — market prices it at 52c. 8-point gap supports NO.

Why One Model Disagrees: PIN Model dissents at 72c — PIN=100% informed trading. 5 smart vs 0 retail wallets. Informed capital concentrated 24% on NO. Fair value: 72% YES.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Despite dominant-side tagging on NO, smart money positioning is split: YES entries cluster across a wide 39-56c band suggesting accumulation on dips, while NO entries are concentrated at 64c indicating late directional bets that have not been validated. The tight NO entry range combined with zero profitability signals weak conviction relative to YES, where lower-cost holders retain optionality and downside cushion.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$85.1K	-1%
This Market Entered at 49c → now 48c (-1%), $85.1K on YES Activity · 6 events · May 23 → Jun 22 DatePositionAmountTotal May 23BUYYES56+$2,011$2,011 Jun 03BUYYES39+$2,090$3,494 Jun 11BUYYES38+$10,378$13,827 Jun 12BUYYES44+$819$16,634 Jun 14BUYYES64+$10,826$34,923 Jun 22BUYYES49+$60,045$86,914 Realized— Unrealized−$1,115 Total Profit−$1,115 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1758) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$14.0K	-17%
This Market Entered at 64c → now 52c (-17%), $14.0K on NO Activity · 8 events · May 13 → Jun 19 DatePositionAmountTotal May 13BUYNO54+$3,881$3,881 May 21BUYNO52+$23$3,760 May 28BUYNO41+$406$3,370 May 30BUYNO51+$4$4,196 May 31BUYNO53+$666$5,027 Jun 01BUYNO59+$1,299$6,897 Jun 08BUYNO72+$10,758$19,167 Jun 19BUYNO57+$138$15,323 Realized— Unrealized−$3,197 Total Profit−$3,197 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1396) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$12.0K	+2%
This Market Entered at 39c → now 48c (+2%), $12.0K on YES Activity · 6 events · May 16 → Jun 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 16BUYYES44+$6,088$6,088 May 22BUYYES46+$4,108$10,473 Jun 01BUYYES38+$2,052$10,704 Jun 09BUYYES29+$4,135$12,304 Jun 09SELLYES29−$6,242$6,156 Jun 11BUYYES44+$1,715$10,984 Realized−$2,007 Unrealized+$2,230 Total Profit+$223 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1076) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	YES	$8.3K	-2%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 48c (-2%), $8.3K on YES Activity · 9 events · May 20 → Jun 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYYES44+$693$693 May 21SELLYES50−$443$332 May 23BUYYES44+$5,248$5,545 May 23SELLYES44−$308$5,174 May 27BUYYES62+$5,783$13,072 May 27SELLYES61−$1,688$11,199 May 29BUYYES60+$1,400$12,398 May 29SELLYES61−$2,024$10,520 Jun 11BUYYES24+$4$4,163 Realized+$542 Unrealized−$771 Total Profit−$229 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1286) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75	MM	YES	$2.8K	-7%
This Market Entered at 56c → now 48c (-7%), $2.8K on YES Activity · 3 events · May 27 → Jun 17 DatePositionAmountTotal May 27BUYYES65+$6,792$6,793 Jun 09BUYYES29+$1,040$4,076 Jun 17SELLYES55−$4,492$3,264 Realized−$44 Unrealized−$457 Total Profit−$501 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1432) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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25% of YES Positions Are in Profit

Half of YES holders sit in profit with entries 39-56c against a 48c mark, while NO holders entered at 64c and are uniformly underwater roughly 16c. The asymmetric P&L distribution suggests YES has stronger price support near current levels, with NO conviction wallets needing a meaningful reversal to recover cost basis.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

25% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 6 Cents

Polymarket prices YES at 48c while Kalshi has it at 54c — a 6-cent gap. Kalshi traders are more bullish on YES. Our model estimates fair value at 40c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	48c	$10.1M
Kalshi	54c	—
Our Model	40c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 48% YES with $10.1M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 40c YES. 4 models agree on direction.