Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 44% YES on Polymarket with $56K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

56c

YES

44c

Prediction markets give a 44% probability to: strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 31?.

Currently at 44%

Traded on Polymarket — $56K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($56K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 44c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 2 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 56c

Smart money entered NO at 49c–54c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 49c–54c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$4.1K	+5%
This Market Entered at 54c → now 56c (+5%), $4.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 13 DatePositionAmountTotal May 13BUYNO54+$3,881$3,881 Realized— Unrealized+$180 Total Profit+$180 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1540) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$2.8K	+16%
This Market Entered at 49c → now 56c (+16%), $2.8K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 12 DatePositionAmountTotal May 12BUYNO49+$2,380$2,380 Realized— Unrealized+$382 Total Profit+$382 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1084) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 49c–54c. At current price 44c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 10 Cents

Significant 10-cent gap: Polymarket at 44c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 44c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	44c	$56K
Kalshi	54c	—
Our Model	44c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 44% YES with $56K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.