Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Aug 04, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $24.3M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Q: How did 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Aug 04, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · AUG 04

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	72c	44%
Compound Signal	NO	46c	8%
Claude Analysis	NO	28c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	35c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	52c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 47c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Despite dominant-side tagging on NO, smart money positioning is split: YES entries cluster across a wide 39-56c band suggesting accumulation on dips, while NO entries are concentrated at 64c indicating late directional bets that have not been validated. The tight NO entry range combined with zero profitability signals weak conviction relative to YES, where lower-cost holders retain optionality and downside cushion.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$146.7K	+9%
This Market Entered at 85c → now 50c (+9%), $146.7K on NO Activity · 13 events · May 13 → Jul 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 13BUYNO54+$3,881$3,881 May 21BUYNO52+$23$3,760 May 28BUYNO41+$406$3,370 May 30BUYNO51+$4$4,196 May 31BUYNO53+$666$5,027 Jun 01BUYNO59+$1,299$6,897 Jun 08BUYNO72+$10,758$19,167 Jun 19BUYNO57+$138$15,323 Jul 02BUYNO73+$488$20,112 Jul 04BUYNO82+$22,262$44,854 Jul 06BUYNO86+$21,410$68,626 Jul 07BUYNO94+$72,388$147,093 Jul 11BUYNO92+$362$144,371 Realized— Unrealized+$12,639 Total Profit+$12,639 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1358) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x2e0b..70	MM	NO	$34.5K	-2%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (-2%), $34.5K on NO Activity · 2 events · Jul 07 → Jul 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 07BUYNO94+$15,157$15,157 Jul 10BUYNO96+$19,985$35,464 Realized— Unrealized−$601 Total Profit−$601 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (808) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$11.8K	-88%
This Market Entered at 48c → now 50c (-88%), $11.8K on YES Activity · 7 events · May 23 → Jun 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 23BUYYES56+$2,011$2,011 Jun 03BUYYES39+$2,090$3,494 Jun 11BUYYES38+$10,378$13,827 Jun 12BUYYES44+$819$16,634 Jun 14BUYYES64+$10,826$34,923 Jun 22BUYYES49+$60,045$86,914 Jun 29BUYYES40+$1,843$72,721 Realized— Unrealized−$76,194 Total Profit−$76,194 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1754) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	YES	$2.7K	-68%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 50c (-68%), $2.7K on YES Activity · 10 events · May 20 → Jul 10 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYYES44+$693$693 May 21SELLYES50−$443$332 May 23BUYYES44+$5,248$5,545 May 23SELLYES44−$308$5,174 May 27BUYYES62+$5,783$13,072 May 27SELLYES61−$1,688$11,199 May 29BUYYES60+$1,400$12,398 May 29SELLYES61−$2,024$10,520 Jun 11BUYYES24+$4$4,163 Jul 10BUYYES5+$1,233$2,100 Realized+$542 Unrealized−$9,409 Total Profit−$8,867 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1290) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$2.7K	+1%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 93c → now 50c (+1%), $2.7K on NO Activity · 2 events · Jul 06 → Jul 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 06BUYNO89+$902$902 Jul 07BUYNO94+$1,756$2,706 Realized— Unrealized+$28 Total Profit+$28 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1788 trades).
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$2.3K	-95%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 50c (-95%), $2.3K on YES Activity · 7 events · May 16 → Jul 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 16BUYYES44+$6,088$6,088 May 22BUYYES46+$4,108$10,473 Jun 01BUYYES38+$2,052$10,704 Jun 09BUYYES29+$4,135$12,304 Jun 09SELLYES29−$6,242$6,156 Jun 11BUYYES44+$1,715$10,984 Jul 11BUYYES11+$1,100$3,846 Realized−$2,007 Unrealized−$9,645 Total Profit−$11,652 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1086) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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92% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$10,149 on $200.8K capital deployed (avg +5.1%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

92% in profit

YES positions

8% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$24.3M	0c
AI Consensus	47c	—	✓ matched

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