As of October 14, 2026, Polymarket prices “Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?” at 25% YES with $94K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 25% probability to: katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean NO, but not unanimous. BUY NO at 25c — models see 7c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 65c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 42c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 78c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (65–98c vs 75c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 82c — market prices it at 75c. 7-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 72c, signaling conviction that Katie Zacharia will still be Press Secretary by December 31. Entering NO at 72c implies the wallet assigns roughly 72% or greater probability to her staying, well above the market's 75% NO-implied pricing, and their profitable position gives them little reason to exit. This smart-money alignment on NO reinforces the bearish case for YES and supports the current 25c level as overpriced.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $1.1K | +5% |
With YES at 25c, every YES position is underwater while all NO holders are profitable, creating strong incentive for NO holders to defend the status quo. The absence of profitable YES entries means there is little organic buying pressure to push the price higher, leaving 25c as a ceiling rather than a floor. This asymmetry favors further downside toward resolution at 0 if the incumbent remains in place.
Polymarket prices YES at 25c with $94K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 18c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 25c | $94K |
| Our Model | 18c | — |