How did 'Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 14, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 14, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $524.8K

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Resolved · MAY 14

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 3 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 6 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	75c	50%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	95c	85%
Grok Contrarian	???	40c	60%
Gemini Flash	YES	94c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	95c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 83c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 of 2 Wallets Is Smart Money

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is classified as smart money. All 1 positioned YES — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x4818..0b	Smart	YES	$1.0K	+21%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (+21%), $1.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · Feb 09 DatePositionAmountTotal Feb 09BUYYES78+$860$860 Realized— Unrealized+$182 Total Profit+$182 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1462 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0x0c0e..4e	MM	YES	$9.7K	+3%
This Market Entered at 92c → now 50c (+3%), $9.7K on YES Activity · 7 events · May 03 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal May 03BUYYES93+$1,744$1,744 May 04BUYYES95+$1,728$3,494 May 05BUYYES96+$693$4,250 May 06SELLYES95−$479$3,711 May 07BUYYES90+$7,093$10,613 May 07SELLYES94−$1,548$9,587 May 08BUYYES94+$73$9,623 Realized+$52 Unrealized+$302 Total Profit+$354 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1546) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,181 on $10.7K capital deployed (avg +11.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	95c	$524.8K	100c
AI Consensus	83c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar