As of September 8, 2026, Polymarket prices “LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?” at 11% YES with $108K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 11% probability to: laptop fdv above $1b one day after launch?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 4/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 67c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 88c | 68% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 35c | 40% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 42c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 60% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 65% |
4 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (67–88c vs 89c). Claude Analysis leads with 68% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 80c — market prices it at 89c. 9-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 10c, signaling a bullish conviction on LAPTOP FDV exceeding $1B post-launch. This early entry at a low price reflects confidence in the outcome, and the lack of NO entries implies no smart money is betting against this thesis. The positioning suggests the wallet expects upward price movement, potentially driving the market toward higher YES valuations.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | YES | $1.5K | +11% |
All tracked YES positions are in profit, entered at 10c against a current price of 11c, indicating a 10% unrealized gain. With no NO entries, there is no opposing capital to absorb selling pressure, which could support further upside if demand persists. The absence of NO holders suggests limited downside resistance near current levels.
Polymarket prices YES at 11c with $108K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 20c. Significant 9-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11c | $108K |
| Our Model | 20c | — |