As of September 8, 2026, Polymarket prices “LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?” at 52% YES with $95K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 52% probability to: laptop fdv above $250m one day after launch?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 14c vs market 52c. BUY NO at 52c — models see 38c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | 48c | 28% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 60% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 72% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (75–98c vs 48c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 48c. 38-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is uniformly positioned on NO, entering at 46c, signaling a bearish conviction on the $250M FDV threshold. Their consistent entries suggest smart money expects the launch to fall short, reinforcing the dominant NO side. This positioning implies a lack of institutional or informed YES accumulation, favoring a continued drift toward NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $2.0K | +5% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit, with entries at 46c against the current 52c YES price, indicating early sellers have captured gains. The absence of profitable YES wallets suggests buyers are underwater, which could pressure YES prices if holders exit. This dynamic implies limited upside support for YES unless new capital enters.
Polymarket prices YES at 52c with $95K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. Significant 38-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 52c | $95K |
| Our Model | 14c | — |