AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 96c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 74c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 93c |
68%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 91c |
68%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 62c |
48%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 92c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 93c |
78%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 87c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Both tracked wallets entered YES exclusively between 69c and 85c, signaling conviction in a launch-day FDV above $250M despite earlier uncertainty. Their staggered entries at higher prices (85c) indicate confidence in continued upside, not just early bargain hunting. This smart money accumulation pattern suggests they expect the market to resolve YES, with no tracked wallet positioned for a NO outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bab..92 ★ | Smart | YES | $23.4K | +10% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $1.4K | +25% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,762 on $24.8K capital deployed (avg +19.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $649.8K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 87c | — | ✓ matched |