As of September 8, 2026, Polymarket prices “LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?” at 26% YES with $165K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 26% probability to: laptop fdv above $500m one day after launch?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 5/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 59c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 77c | 55% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 35c | 40% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 48% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 65c | 55% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 72% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (59–85c vs 74c). Kimi Macro leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 73c — market prices it at 74c. 1-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES exclusively at 30c, showing a bullish bet on the FDV exceeding $500M post-launch. This entry above the current market price implies the trader expects upward movement, but the lack of NO entries from smart money leaves direction ambiguous. The concentrated YES position suggests conviction, yet the small sample size limits predictive power.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | YES | $6.4K | -13% |
All YES positions are underwater, with entries at 30c against a current price of 26c, indicating no trader is currently profitable. This creates potential selling pressure near breakeven, but the absence of NO entries suggests limited downside conviction. Price support may emerge if YES holders hold for a higher FDV outcome, but the 4c loss per share signals early bearish sentiment.
Polymarket prices YES at 26c with $165K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 27c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26c | $165K |
| Our Model | 27c | — |