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Resolved: Jun 04, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $375.8M

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Resolved · JUN 04
NO
100c
YES
0c
Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.
MODERATE RESULT
NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

DIRECTION MATCHED
53c
95c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update NO 7c
86%
PIN Model NO 2c
96%
Compound Signal NO 18c
64%
Claude Analysis NO 8c
82%
DeepSeek Quant NO 8c
85%
Gemini Flash NO 10c
75%
Kimi Macro NO 9c
90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

8 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is overwhelmingly positioned NO, with tier-1 wallets accumulating across a wide 37c-90c band — consistent conviction that Saylor will not sell any BTC before May 31. The absence of profitable YES entries plus broad NO ladder suggests directional certainty rather than hedging; market is pricing in MicroStrategy's hold-thesis as near-certain.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x6bab..92 MMNO$53.7K+15%
0x5188..04MMNO$34.9K+25%
0x44c1..c1MMNO$30.5K-2%
0x7c3d..6bMMNO$8.5K+37%
0x0c0e..4eMMNO$8.3K+2%
0xde7b..4bMMYES$2.6K-25%
0x5cd5..33 RetailNO$1.7K-2%
0xcaab..ddMMNO$1.5K+109%
0x69aa..47MMYES$1.3K-11%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

97% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$41,831 on $142.8K capital deployed (avg +29.3%).

NO positions
97% in profit
YES positions
3% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 11c $375.8M 0c
AI Consensus 9c ✓ matched