AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 5c |
90%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 17c |
66%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unambiguously positioned for status quo: the lone tracked wallet built NO at 84c, well above current 90c implied NO, signaling early conviction that the incumbent holds. The absence of any YES entries reinforces this as a low-conviction long-shot market where alpha sees no path to regime change before the June 30 deadline.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.6K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$191 on $1.6K capital deployed (avg +11.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |