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Politics
Resolves: Jun 2026 36 days left Volume: $262K

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

NO
81c
YES
19c

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES). Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez said Cuba is aware of the threats of military aggression from the U.S.

Down from 32% to 19% since 2026-04-06 (-13pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $262K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 19c YES with $262K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 5/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.
MODERATE OUR VERDICT
BUY NO 81c

5/5 models agree on NO, fair value 17c vs market 20c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

+17% TARGET YIELD
49c
95c
100c
81c
83c
Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

5 of 5 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelNO98c—
MATH Compound SignalNO68c—
AI DeepSeek QuantNO92c
75%
AI Gemini FlashNO75c
65%
AI Kimi MacroNO80c
70%

5 of 5 models estimate NO fair value above market (68–98c vs 80c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 75% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 83c — market prices it at 80c. 3-point gap supports NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 55c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xc408..75MMNO$1.7K+48%
See all 80 alpha wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 55c. At current price 19c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% in profit

Polymarket: 19c YES — $262K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 19c with $262K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 17c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket19c$262K
Our Model17c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 19% YES with $262K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 17c YES. 5 models agree on direction.