AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
95%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 55c when the market was a coin flip, signaling early conviction that Díaz-Canel survives the June 30 deadline. With price now at 8c (92% implied NO), the position is validated and the wallet has little incentive to exit — the entry timing reflects structural read on Cuban political continuity, not a reactive trade.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc408..75 | MM | NO | $2.0K | +73% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,659 on $2.0K capital deployed (avg +82.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $370.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |