AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 40c |
20%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 33c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 27c |
68%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 22c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
72%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 23c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 63c, showing no YES entries and a clear directional bet against a Chicago Fire win. That entry sits well above the current 36c YES price, implying the wallet expects the market to converge further toward NO. With only one wallet tracked, this is a weak but unopposed signal favoring NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd48a..90 | MM | NO | $3.1K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,071 on $3.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 36c | $96.7K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 23c | — | × missed |