As of September 22, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-07-16?” at 39% YES with $50K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 39% probability to: will chicago fire fc win on 2026-07-16?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 26c vs market 39c. BUY NO at 39c — models see 13c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 58c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 66c | 45% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 70c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 78c | 65% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (58–98c vs 61c). Gemini Flash leads with 65% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 74c — market prices it at 61c. 13-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 63c, signaling a bearish view on Chicago Fire FC winning. However, with NO now trading at 61c (implied by YES 39c), that wallet is already at a loss, which may indicate either an early entry that has been overtaken by market movement or a contrarian stance that has yet to be validated. The lack of YES entries from tracked wallets leaves the bullish side without smart-money confirmation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd48a..90 | MM | NO | $2.9K | -3% |
With YES at 39c, no YES position is in profit, while NO entries at 63c are also underwater, implying the current price sits below the NO cost basis and above the YES cost basis. This creates a squeeze where both sides are losing, but the NO side's 63c entry suggests the market has repriced downward from that level, offering support for YES at 39c as a value entry relative to the NO buyer's original thesis.
Polymarket prices YES at 39c with $50K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 26c. Significant 13-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 39c | $50K |
| Our Model | 26c | — |