AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 18c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
93%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money established NO at 78c when uncertainty was already skewed, signaling conviction that Mojtaba Khamenei would not appear publicly by May 31. The single-sided positioning with no YES counter-bets reflects a one-way read: succession-linked silence treated as the base case. Direction implied is continued NO resolution barring an unscheduled public appearance.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $3.3K | +17% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$963 on $3.3K capital deployed (avg +28.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $455.5K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |